The Colts' 2012 campaign came as a surprise to everyone. With a rookie quarterback and new coaching staff, not many people had the Colts finishing over .500, let-alone make the playoffs.
Once their head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with cancer early in the season, people were even less optimisitic about their chances of being competitive.
But there's something about a team rallying around a cause that gives them an edge.
We saw the Yankees do this in 2001, the Saints during their home opener after Hurricane Katrina, and the Colts did the same thing last season.
So the question is: Are the Colts really that good or were they playing out of desperation and heart?
Nine out of their 11 wins last season were by a touchdown or less. Many of these were last minute drives that they needed to put together to win games. This can be good or bad.
It says that they can win close games, but it also tells us that they aren't good enough to blow anyone away. By the way, their losses came by 20 points, 5 points, 26 points, 35 points, and 12 points.
When they lost games, they were blown out in everyone game except one, and that was against the Jaguars, which may be worse than getting beat by 35 to the Patriots.
This tells me that the team is too inconsistent to put together another 11-win season. In 2012, they had the easiest schedule in the NFL. In 2013, it gets a little tougher. They will be playing the NFC West and the AFC West, as well as the Bengals, a playoff team from a year ago.
Andrew Luck should be even better than last year, and adding Heyward-Bey should give them the ability to stretch the field nicely. I'm just not sold on the running game quite yet or the offensive line. They made some upgrades, but they'll have to do much better than they did last year to keep Luck upright.
Just looking over their schedule, I can see them winning between 7 and 10 games, meaning there are about three games that can go either way. If they can win the close games like last season, they'll find themselves in the postseason again.