NOTE: Each week of the season footballnation.net founder and Cold, Hard Football Facts partner Andrew Miller will look at the three games he is personally playing each week, using the disciplined system he has followed over years of analytics research as both an entrepreneur and football fan. Read more about Miller below.
Week 6 was just one big ouch, not what the doctor ordered as we turn the corner into a new week.
We were looking to build some positive momentum and got stuffed at the 1 yard line on fourth and goal. There are no excuses for an 0-3 week.
We backed the Houston Texans against a mediocre St. Louis Rams team. They are now 0-6 ATS in 2013, despite having a top-three defense until last week.
The Texans also have a QB controversy, with Matt Schaub injured, and coach Gary Kubiak headed towards the firing line. To lose so badly to the Rams at home is just plain brutal.
The Panthers seemed to have the edge in several categories and trends last week. We thought the Vikings would ride a wave of emotion to a straight up win. Wrong!
They were flat, and right now, are relying on Josh Freeman to earn some respect. The first pick in the 2014 draft may make more sense for the Vikings than winning a few games.
The Packers won a tough battle but could not cover the -3, winning by 2, our only respectable pick in week 6.
As we outline each week, the key to long-term success is a disciplined system. We will stick to the system outlined below and work our way back, hoping for a couple of winning weeks back to back before the halfway point of the season. If we can get to a breakeven or slightly better record by week 9, the Trifecta will be poised to make you money from week 10 through the playoffs, when the data and information on teams makes it easier to pinpoint mismatches.
Here is the Trifecta system:
We will refer to units bet for each game. A unit can differ for each of you but the key is to stick to the system. You will notice this system is very consistent: we play the same amount of units per each of the three games, avoiding the temptation of stepping it up until playing with house money.
If we step it up and end up back at point zero, we will start the system all over again. It is essential to stick to your system: so many people get on a losing streak and try to make it all up in one game, only to dig deeper in a hole.
Deep holes are, of course, tough to come out of. Be smart. Be sensible. Have fun. Why three picks? Betting on football is hard. For those who are very good, we have just a slight edge and margin over Vegas. The most successful football bettors play one or three games each week.
My system of three: you need to bat 66 percent (2/3) to win, where with one pick you need to bat 100 percent to win; with four picks, 75 percent.
Yes, the math gets more favorable the more games you play, so if you play all 16 games in a 16-game week, and you go 9-7, you will have only needed to succeed at 57 percent which is easier than 66 percent. However, there are never or rarely nine clear-cut advantages to identify out there every week. So while the percentage you need to win is higher, the odds of doing so with more or every game decreases.
The picks in this Trifecta column are not necessarily the same as those of the official CHFF "Real and Spectacular" Picks based upon our Quality Stats. Our goal is to provide you as much information as possible to make educated picks based upon a variety of stats, methods and strategies.
On to the Picks:
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 at Tennessee Titans
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3.5 for 100 Units
The Niners (4-2) and Titans (4-1-1) both having winning records ATS. The Titans are strong in non-conference games, with a 40-20 record In their last 60 games.
This is the game where the 49ers defense begins to resemble the 2012 unit and the offense continues its momentum 32-point effort in Week 6. We would prefer if this game were -3, the half point makes us a bit nervous. But even at -3.5 the 49ers should prevail and cover.
NY Giants -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: NY Giants -3.5 for 100 Units
Are you asking what are we doing picking a game between arguably the two of the four worst teams in the NFL?
The Giants are 1-5 ATS and 0-6 straight up. The Vikings (2-3 ATS, 1-4 SU) looked downright awful in Week 6. The Giants played a slightly better game against the Bears last week while the Vikings looked totally lost in a game we believed they would win.
The Giants are better coached, have a better QB, and a better everything other than Adrian Peterson. The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 Monday Night Football games.
This is not the MNF game the networks hoped for but expect the Giants to win the game, and cover ATS.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Total 41
Pick: Over 41 for 100 Units
The Ravens have gone over in 7 of their last 10 games in Pittsburgh. This is a game featuring quarterbacks Joe Flacco and Big Ben Roethlisberger who like to throw downfield and can score quickly. Both teams can score defensive TD’s, and the Ravens have special teamers who can take it to the house.
Trifecta Week 6 record: 0-3
Trifecta Season record: 4-12-2
Andrew Miller is the founder of Football Nation.com and an entrepreneur focusing on analytics-driven online businesses. The Wall Street veteran worked for Michael Milken’s Drexel Burnham, and was a senior vice president at Bear Stearns and Smith Barney. Miller then founded CreditCards.com and InsuranceQuotes.com, both sites that used analytics to drive leads in the respective industries. Both businesses were successfully sold within 3 years of their inception. Miller gathered a team of experts who live and breathe football, including Cold, Hard Football Facts, and in 2011 they founded footballnation.net. He is now all football, all the time: playing high stakes fantasy football and betting on games, using deep analysis through CHFF Insider, trends research, and years of intuition.