St. Louis at Seattle (-11)

The Seahawks have dominated the NFL largely wire to wire and remain No. 1 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings, despite last week’s first-since-2011 home loss the Cardinals.

Seattle is still good everywhere, in fact: a Top 5 team in 19 of 23 Quality Stats.

Surprisingly, though, they still need a win here to wrap up the NFC West crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference – which all but assures the Seahawks a trip to the Super Bowl given their home dominance in recent years.

The Rams, meanwhile, have produced a nice 4-2 run here over the second half of the season, with wins over the playoff-contending Colts, Bears and Saints.

But St. Louis most likely does not have the horsepower to run with the Seahawks in the Seattle.

After all, Seattle remains a frighteningly dominant defensive club when at the top of its game:

  • No. 2 in scoring D (14.8 PPG)
  • No. 1 in Defensive Real Pass YPA
  • No. 1 in Defensive Real QB Rating
  • No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating
  • No. 1 in Defensive Rusher Rating
  • No. 1 in Total Team Yards Allowed

That unit presents a formidable challenge for Kellen Clemens, who has thrown just 7 TDs in his nine appearances this year, with an 80.6 rating.

The big -11 line should be enough to frighten you off, given the often tight nature of so many NFC West battles. But if all goes according to statistical plan, the Rams will struggle badly to move the ball. They produced just three field goals in Seattle's 14-9 win in St. Louis; of course, keep in mind that the Seahawks that day produced just 135 yards of offense.

We're largely banking on Seattle returning to dominant home form after last week's scare.

Pick: Seattle 27, St. Louis 13