By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts King of the World

We settled for a tie with Indianapolis (-3) vs. Tennessee last week thanks to a garbage TD by the Titans, but avoided the same fate with Philly (-3.5) when the Redskins failed to complete a comeback from three TDs down on a day where Eagle backers were mostly breathing easy.

For the season, the Intelligence Index picks are 20-4 straight up, 14-8-2 (.636) vs. the spread. 

As you can see from the chart below, smart play pays off with wins and with $$$. The Top 5 teams on the Intelligence Index are a combined:

  • 37-14 overall
  • 33-17-1 (.660) ATS

Dumb play corresponds nicely and provides plenty of money-making opportunity: the Bottom 5 on the Intelligence Index are:

  • 15-35 overall
  • 17-32-1 (.347) ATS

Note the two dumbest teams in football are also the two worst bets in football. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 3-16-1 (.158) ATS.

The Intelligence Index through Week 11

 TEAMBENDSCOREI. INDEXvs. SpreadOverall
1Kansas City24.4113.7910.626-49-1
2Carolina21.7813.58.287-37-3
3San Francisco18.1912.515.686-3-16-4
4Seattle18.0212.895.137-410-1
5Dallas17.0511.965.097-35-5
6New England17.8314.333.55-57-3
7Denver14.5811.443.146-49-1
8Indianapolis16.5913.882.715-4-16-4
9Cincinnati16.7214.582.146-4-17-4
10Miami16.2214.451.775-55-5
11Baltimore16.0314.831.25-4-14-6
12Philadelphia17.6816.431.156-56-5
13New Orleans16.6914.551.146-3-18-2
14Chicago13.9713.020.952-6-26-5
15St. Louis15.0314.130.94-64-6
16Tennessee14.6114.30.315-3-24-6
17Arizona15.3315.250.086-3-16-4
18San Diego17.5217.5205-4-14-6
19Detroit14.9615.63-0.675-56-4
20Minnesota12.2413.24-1.14-62-8
21Buffalo14.0115.43-1.426-54-7
22Green Bay14.6816.18-1.54-65-5
23Pittsburgh13.9115.89-1.984-64-6
24Tampa Bay14.4216.62-2.24-62-8
25Oakland14.2417.1-2.867-34-6
26Atlanta13.0816.24-3.162-82-8
27N.Y. Giants13.1316.7-3.574-64-6
28Cleveland12.8816.57-3.695-54-6
29Washington12.5416.75-4.213-73-7
30N.Y. Jets12.0917.75-5.666-45-5
31Houston10.3719.59-9.221-8-12-8
32Jacksonville12.3121.55-9.242-81-9

 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

There are two slam-dunk picks this week and one that took a bit more digging.

Baltimore -3.5 at home vs. Jets. The Jets are the third-dumbest team in the league thus far (-5.66), and the only one of the league’s dunces to actually have fared well vs. the spread … early (6-4).

That’s not going to last; we’ll be putting more money against New York down the stretch, for sure On the road against Baltimore (No. 12), they should probably be getting a touchdown; that they’re getting half that is even more good news.

San Francisco -5.5 at Washington. Until the Redskins (-4.21) prove otherwise, they are the posterboys for what makes this system work – a talented team that keeps the bettors interested but leaves points on the field. They’re 3-7 vs. the number, and going against a San Fran team No. 3 on our Index (+5.68). 

Pittsburgh +2.5 at Cleveland. While the Steelers aren’t that far above the Browns on this list (Pittsburgh -1.98, Cleveland -3.69), they have been moving in opposite directions.

The Steelers have been climbing over the last month, while Cleveland has been falling. The Steelers should be favored in this one; considering they’re catching a couple points this looks like a very solid play.