By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts King of the World
We settled for a tie with Indianapolis (-3) vs. Tennessee last week thanks to a garbage TD by the Titans, but avoided the same fate with Philly (-3.5) when the Redskins failed to complete a comeback from three TDs down on a day where Eagle backers were mostly breathing easy.
For the season, the Intelligence Index picks are 20-4 straight up, 14-8-2 (.636) vs. the spread.
As you can see from the chart below, smart play pays off with wins and with $$$. The Top 5 teams on the Intelligence Index are a combined:
- 37-14 overall
- 33-17-1 (.660) ATS
Dumb play corresponds nicely and provides plenty of money-making opportunity: the Bottom 5 on the Intelligence Index are:
- 15-35 overall
- 17-32-1 (.347) ATS
Note the two dumbest teams in football are also the two worst bets in football. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 3-16-1 (.158) ATS.
The Intelligence Index through Week 11
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
There are two slam-dunk picks this week and one that took a bit more digging.
Baltimore -3.5 at home vs. Jets. The Jets are the third-dumbest team in the league thus far (-5.66), and the only one of the league’s dunces to actually have fared well vs. the spread … early (6-4).
That’s not going to last; we’ll be putting more money against New York down the stretch, for sure On the road against Baltimore (No. 12), they should probably be getting a touchdown; that they’re getting half that is even more good news.
San Francisco -5.5 at Washington. Until the Redskins (-4.21) prove otherwise, they are the posterboys for what makes this system work – a talented team that keeps the bettors interested but leaves points on the field. They’re 3-7 vs. the number, and going against a San Fran team No. 3 on our Index (+5.68).
Pittsburgh +2.5 at Cleveland. While the Steelers aren’t that far above the Browns on this list (Pittsburgh -1.98, Cleveland -3.69), they have been moving in opposite directions.
The Steelers have been climbing over the last month, while Cleveland has been falling. The Steelers should be favored in this one; considering they’re catching a couple points this looks like a very solid play.