San Diego (-1.5) at Miami
Lost in the tabloid media coverage of the Richie Incognito situation down in Miami is the fact that second-year QB Ryan Tannehill, the eighth overall pick in the 2012 draft, hasn’t really developed the way the Dolphins had hoped, at least not yet.
Tannehill, despite being given a new and very expensive Shiny Hood Ornament (Mike Wallace) to play with this past offseason, has just an 81 passer rating and has Miami’s passing offense ranked No. 27 in both Real QB Rating and Real Passing YPA.
However, Tannehill and the Dolphins may actually be able to move the ball through the air this Sunday when the rancid San Diego pass defense comes to town. The Chargers are wasting a great season from QB Philip Rivers because they just can’t stop anyone. San Diego ranks No. 32 in both Defensive Passer Rating and Defensive Real QB Rating, and No. 31 in Defensive Real Passing YPA.
It really doesn’t get much worse than that. For good measure, the Chargers also suck against the run (No. 25 in Defensive Rusher Rating) and have our No. 30-ranked Defensive Hogs.
With that said, the San Diego offense also has done itself no favors by being one of the more inefficient units in the league, as the Chargers are No. 25 on our Scoreability Index—that means San Diego gains a lot of yards, but also leaves a lot of points out on the field.
Miami’s defense, which ranks No. 7 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 8 in Defensive Real QB Rating, can probably slow down Rivers and the inefficient San Diego offense just enough to allow the Dolphins’ offense to take advantage of that very inviting Chargers’ defense.
Pick: Miami 23, San Diego 21