Each week I give you the fantasy “Booms and Busts” of the week. The first list will be five players that I expect to perform at least 50% higher than their average week. This could be from a specific match-up, an injury to another player that moves them up the depth chart, or maybe just a gut feeling. The next list will be five players that I expect to perform at 50% or less of their weekly average. This could also be because of a match-up, a conflict with a coach, or even a weather issue. I don’t think you need help determining whether or not to start someone who is injured, so no questionable, doubtful, or out players will make the list.
1. Michael Vick
: The Eagles lost a game they desperately needed on Monday night. This game will be one of redemption for Vick. He averages just over 21ppg, but a very favorable match-up against the Cardinals should give him 300 passing yards, 60 rushing yards, and three scores (36 pts).
2. Steve Breaston
: Breaston is only averaging seven ppg, but he has been a target looked too often in the past two weeks. The Chiefs need a win to keep pace in the AFC West and they are playing against a Denver pass defense that ranks 23rd
in the league and is allowing the 2nd
most points in the league. Expect Breaston to break the 100 yard mark and grab a score (16 pts).
3. Dustin Keller
: Keller plays the Patriots this week in a match-up that should allow him to find quite a bit of success. Jake Ballard had over 60 yards and a score last week for the Giants against this same pass defense, and this game is in New York. Keller should be targeted often, especially in the red-zone. Keller is averaging under seven ppg, but expect him to double that with around 80 yards and a score this week (14 pts).
4. Ryan Matthews:
The Chargers play the Raiders this week and Rivers is not going to be allowed to lose this game for them. Expect a lot of the run from both Matthews and Tolbert as well as the short dump offs which will also benefit Matthews. He practiced Tuesday and looks to be a go after being out last week. He should see a nice increase over his 14.5ppg average with around 120 total yards and a pair of scores (24 pts).
5. Chris Johnson:
Maybe it is crazy to pick this guy to do anything decent for the rest of the year. But the Titans are 4-4 and could find themselves right back in the mix with a win and a Texans loss. They play the Panthers, who have given up the sixth most rushing yards per game in the league with just over 130 ypg. Chris Johnson is averaging less than eight ppg this year. He might not look like the back he is being paid to be, but you can expect around 100 total yards and a score (16 pts).
1. Adrian Peterson
: It is always harder to pick the busts because someone’s ppg have to be cut in half to reach the 50% mark. While All Day did well in the first match-up against Green Bay, I have a feeling this game won’t be close. The Vikings will need to pass the ball to try and stay in it, and by the middle of the third they will be so far down that AP won’t risk injury. Peterson averages over 19ppg, but expect only 80 total yards and no scores for this beast.
2. LeGarrette Blount
: Blounte is averaging almost 11ppg in his six starts and played last week after missing two weeks. Tampa Bay plays the Texans who are only allowing 91 rushing yards per game and have won three in a row. During that three game stretch they have only allowed 61 rushing yards per game, including only 84 to Little Hercules and 53 to CJ2K and Javon Ringer COMBINED. Blounte will have a very tough time during much on the ground. Expect around 50 total yards and no scores (5 pts).
3. Wes Welker:
I dared myself to put Welker on this list and decided to take the dare. Why? Revis. Enough said. Welker is averaging 17ppg, but Revis is the best shut-down corner in the league. Assuming they use Revis on Welker, expect Welker to only come up with around 50 total yards and no scores (5 pts).
4. Bengal Def:
The Cincy defense has put up over 11 ppg this season, but they haven’t player the Steelers yet. While I could actually see the Bengals winning this game in Cincy, I don’t think it will be on their defense. Expect them to allow around 27 points and over 350 yards of offense. They won’t force a turnover, but you can expect three sacks on Big Ben (aprox 3 pts).
5. Tom Brady:
I decided to go out on a limb with this one. Brady is averaging over 26 ppg this year. However, in his last four games that total has been around 19.6ppg. Brady’s lowest point total of the season was his first match-up with the Jets, and that was in New England. He only recorded 17 points. Expect the Jets to come out hungry, with a chance to take the division lead on the line. I think Brady ends the day with 275 yards one score, and two turnovers (13 pts).
Think someone deserves to be on either list? Tell me about it in the comments section below.