By Luis DeLoureiro
Cold, Hard Football Facts Waterboy
It’s gonna happen.
No doubt about it.
Unless Dan Marino goes on a murderous quarterback-killing rampage through Massachusetts, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Charlotte, Southern California and Dallas, the single season yardage record is going down. (If Marino does decide to go through the trouble of a coast to coast killing spree, he may want to stop in Detroit and Nashville for good measure).
So, why would the meek, unassertive crew at CHFF feel so comfortable making such a bold proclamation?
No, it has nothing to do with selling our souls to become the next Skip Bayless, i.e. blathering mindlessly (and loudly) about any topic a poor, unknowing bystander has the misfortune of bringing up.
The reason we’re so sure the record (which, by the way, stands at 5,084 yards) is going down is as follows:
At the quarter point of the season, Tom Brady has thrown for 1,553 yards. This puts him on pace for 6,212 yards – a number that would break the record by over 1,100 yards.
Put another way, if Brady were to keep up this pace (obviously a big “if”), he would break a record that has stood for 26 years, by 22 percent. That would be like Mark McGwire hitting over 70 home runs to break……..never mind. Well, at least Brady would do it without the benefit of…….a short temper, small testicles and an acne filled back.
If Brady doesn’t do it, there are six (SIX!!!) other players currently on pace to surpass Marino.
Drew Brees (on pace for 5,640), Cam Newton (5,544), Aaron Rodgers (5,300), Philip Rivers (5,144) and Tony Romo (5,092) are all on pace to surpass Marino. Matt Stafford and Matt Hasselbeck (ok, now we know this is a joke) are just off the pace.
One of them is going to break through. In fact, we’ll go as far as saying that at least two players will surpass 5,084 yards passing.
The table below shows the league’s top 10 passers in terms of passing yardage – as well as how their numbers project out to the full season.
I know what you’re thinking. “Whatever, Waterboy. Although your articles are what makes me go on living, your argument is flawed. There are always a handful of players who get off to record breaking starts.”
Well, imaginary friend, you’re half right. One or two players do always get off to record-breaking paces. But, this year, there are six…….and two just off the pace……a quarter of the way through the season.
The record is going down.
Quick Tribute to Danny Ballgame
Dan Marino has become a forgotten man.
He retired with four major records. He was the career leader in passing yards and TDs. And, his otherworldly 1984 season established single season records in the same metrics.
But, alas, records were meant to be broken. And, because we live in a world where sports radio has convinced us that a player’s accomplishments should be diminished because he doesn’t win a championship……in a team sport…..with 53 players on a roster (or whatever it is these days), the records were all that separated Marino from players like Warren Moon, Boomer Esiason and Drew Bledsoe (not the Waterboy’s opinion…..just an observation).
But, three of those records are history.
Brett Favre surpassed Marino’s career numbers (in part because he played until he could collect social security). And, first Peyton Manning, and then, Tom Brady, chased down the single season TD records.
And now, the yardage record is going down.
So, we thought we should point out a few facts about Marino’s 1984 season – which, by the way, was only his second season in the NFL. (Somewhere in Tribeca, Mark Sanchez is hoping nobody read that last sentence).
Marino tied the TD record in Week 13 of the 1984 season. The 12 TDs he threw in the last three weeks only added to his record.
Between 1985 and 1998, only one player came close to Marino’s record of 48 TDs. That player was Dan Marino, who threw 44 TDs in 1986.
In 1999, Kurt Warner threw 41 TD passes. And, of course, Manning and Brady surpassed Marino with 49 and 50 TDs in a season in the current decade.
And, of course, there’s that single season yardage record. Marino established the record – 5,084 yards - in 1984.
In the 17 years after Marino broke the record, only two players got within 500 yards of his mark. Warren Moon did it twice (4,690 yards in 1991 and 4,689 yards in 1989) and Marino came within 500 yards of his own record in 1986 (4,796 yards).
He was pretty good.
Conference Based Fantasy League
A few weeks ago we introduced a fantasy league we will be tracking this season.
Essentially, each team can only contain players who attended a school from a pre-assigned conference.
After four weeks, the league is remarkably balanced.
Our Waterboy’s non-BCS team, is sitting in last place. What did you expect? Winners don’t refer to themselves as the Waterboy.
Four of the six teams are currently 2-2. And, in a bit of a surprise, the ACC, which is led by the Tom Keeney – college roommate of the Waterboy’s – is currently sitting in first place with a 3-1 record.
The ACC’s first place standing is due in no small part to the success of Calvin Johnson (Georgia Tech). But, the ACC team is pretty well balanced. Keeney gets to choose between Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and Anquan Boldin at WR. And at QB, he can choose between Mike Vick, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan.
If you have any questions, comments or death threats for the Monday Morning Waterboy, please feel free to contact him on Twitter at @deloureiro