NFL Draft 2013: Top 10 Potential Early Round Bust Picks

By Seth Carson
January 13, 2013 1:14 pm
1,773 Views 14 Comments

Geno Smith 1) QB Geno Smith, West Virginia

The knock on Geno Smith continues to be his size. He lacks the typical frame for a starting NFL quarterback.

He’s a pocket passer and not a prototypical scrambler per se, which does translate well into Andy Reid’s style of offense. 

Also, this presents a huge problem when it comes to his ability to absorb hits and remain uninjured. 

Next, his throwing mechanics needs plenty of work, since he slings the ball at a 3/4th cut rather than the traditional overhead throw.

Smith also lacks good side to side agility which casts a major problem in avoiding getting sacked at the next level. 

He’s a pocket version of Pat White, slower, less agility, but a stronger arm with an equally small frame.  None of these translates to a star in the NFL, one good smack and he could be riding pine for the season.

2) DT Johnathan Hankins, Ohio State

Hankins tends to get off to great starts each season only to falter through the remaining games of the season. Any team selecting him would have to get him conditioned for the next level, he won’t be of any good service to a team by sitting on the bench most of the game clutching the oxygen tank. 

His problem isn’t so much physical more than mental; he just loses focus after a good start. Hankins is not one to put pressure on a QB, and the size of offensive lineman at the next level make him the next potential draft day bust.

3) LB Alec Ogletree, Georgia

Ogletree has a history of off the field problems that translate to suspensions. He was suspended in both 2010 and 2011 for off the field issues, one being a theft charge. He also suffer a broken foot and missed half the season last year, and despite a strong returns and finish to the season, foot injuries (mainly broken feet) are the most reoccurring injuries next to knee and back injuries at the next level. His poor attitude and physical limits make him another bust pick.

4) WR Tavon Austin, West Virginia

Austin at 5-9, 175 pounds, has too small of a frame to be anything but a situation player. He doesn’t have great speed to cover returns in the NFL, and his size would equally remove that realm of logic. 

He could be utilized in the slot or as a scat back ala Eric Metcalf, but unless he can add beef to his frame before training camp, he won’t see many touches on game day. He does have excellent hands, but one good shot and his days in the NFL could be finished.

5) WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee

Hunter has a good size and frame, and also possesses a great set of hand, which should translate into a phenomenal second day pick. However, the ACL tear he suffered wasn’t the typical type and there a league wide history of players who enter at cutting position re-injuring the knee and never being able to fully produce again as they did in college (See Mario Hardesty for example). 

ACL injuries are the most reoccurring injury in the NFL and due to the manner in which he tore the ligament makes him a risky pick in any round before the 3rd or 4th, and makes him a big risk pick on draft day.


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Previous Comments (14)

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2 years ago
Geno Smith compared to Pat White -- ouch, that's cold! Good article, Seth.
2 years ago

Thanks Mike, I value your opinion and appreciate your comment!
2 years ago
Thanks. He reminds me of him in quite a few ways, except for speed. Smith is slower.
2 years ago
I feel you on Geno Smith for some reason. There have not been any QBs that played that Dana Holgerson style offense that have done well in the NFL.
2 years ago

Yeah, and he's undersized too. I dislike his throwing mechanics and he's not very agile in or out of the pocket. He's not that much of an upgrade from Cassel but he is the top QB, so Reid takes him and hope to get more from him than he received from Vick. I have my doubts that this will take place, he has bust written all over him.
2 years ago
Tavon Austin "doesn't have good speed"? Hey man, I hate every mountaineer player-I'm a WV hater- but that dude has serious speed. You had to have seen some highlights of him. If he goes to combine, he will run sub 4.4 for sure. If he breaks free on a return of any kind, there is no one that will catch him. btw, they say his little bro is just as fast or faster!! Not sure how you wrote that and no one notice the error. Otherwise, good article.
2 years ago

Nope, he runs a 4.49(4.5) 40 and lacks the size to be an effective returner. Even as a scat back or slot he wont be burning any corners nor over reaching them for catches. There was no error, you generalize that he WILL run sub 4.4 when his fastest time recorded at WV was listed above, he's a bust pick. If he proves otherwise with speed at the combines, then so be it, speed doesn't erase his under sized frame.
2 years ago
Thats a good list. I think Austin can play though. He is going to be like Sproles or Andrew Hawkins. There is a place for players like him in the league who can get into open space.
2 years ago

You dont think his size and frame makes him a liability on game day? He can get into open space, but he wont be able to absorb the big hits the NFL offers, it's not college ball, were talking NFL caliber hits here. How many do you think he can take before going down to an injury?
2 years ago

Andrew Hawkins was 5'7 175 and he had 51 cathches 533 yards and 4 tds Darren Sproles is 5'6 181 and you see how important he is. that is all I am saying.
2 years ago

I appreciate that James, but each player is different and not of the same make and model. He takes one good pop from a Defensive lineman and it's goodnight. Sproles was a running back at K. State, he was used to absorbing the interior hits of the bigger lineman. Austin is a Wide Out and didnt get the same type of contact. He will receive it in the NFL, where only the best of the best come to play. I'm not sold on him, he just looks too fragile
2 years ago
Hmmmmm.... not sure how much I agree with these. While this years QB crop is not loaded with talent, I don't think there is as many busts as you say. Bray has excellent arm strength, and can make all the big boy throws. With the right coach, I could see Geno Smith and Tyler Bray developing into solid/decent starters in the NFL. None of them are deserving of the number one overall pick in this draft, nor do I think KC will draft them. Honestly, the best QB from this class will probably be Mike Glennon, Ej Manuel, or Tyler Wilson.

On a very unrelated note, can anyone else see the Vikings taking a QB in the 2nd-4th rounds? I think it'd be a smart move to get at least a backup QB in light of Joe Webb's terrible performance and Ponder's inconsistency(is he really that good to begin with?).
2 years ago

Thanks for your response I appreciate it. While we disagree on the picks, we are in agreement on the Vikings using a mid round pick to sure up the depth behind Ponder (who has been a disappointment) before it turns into another Browns and Jets QB spectacle.

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