Mick’s Picks: Conference Championship Weekend

With Matt Ryan running an offense that features three of the best weapons in the league—Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, and Julio Jones—some people would be surprised to hear that the Falcons are underdogs at home after their 13-3 season. Today’s NFL is supposed to be all about offense, right? I mean, last week, Matt Ryan showed us why he is called Matty Ice when he made two quick completions to put the Falcons in line for a field goal that ultimately won them the game.

With their running game suddenly showing some life against Seattle, Atlanta seems to have what it takes. But the Falcon’s run totals were an anomaly, bloated by a couple of long bursts that Seattle seemed unable to stop as it successfully slowed down the passing attack.

Still, defense wins championships, right? Well, while Mike Nolan’s defense has been confusing even the best quarterbacks this year, the 49ers have the kryptonite to Nolan’s system—a fast mobile quarterback. Cam Newton twice tore up the Falcon’s defense this year and Russell Wilson almost single handedly delivered the Seahawks one of the greatest comebacks in playoff history with 385 yards in the air and 60 yards on the ground.

Only difference this week is that the 49ers have a bigger, tougher, faster quarterback who convincingly outduelled Aaron Rodgers a week ago. Throw in a better, more disciplined defense and the fact that the Falcons might be missing their best pass-rusher in John Abraham (at the least he may be limited) and you can be sure that the 49ers will be going to the Super Bowl.

The question is can they withstand Matty Ice’s last minute heroics? I think they can and should be able to handle the 4-point spread easily.