Kansas City Chiefs: Geno Smith or Alex Smith Debate

By Seth Carson
February 10, 2013 3:02 pm
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Geno Smith The Chiefs own the first pick in the NFL Draft and the consensus has them selecting Geno Smith to be their "franchise" quarterback.

Taking a quarterback at No. 1 carries a very high risk, and the potential to draft a buster while paying them a huge guaranteed amount of cash up front.

Is the safe play here drafting a potential bust, or should the Chiefs trade for their future "franchise" quarterback? 

A few names do come to mind as potential trade chips, but the biggest one circling around is Alex Smith. It's been widely rumored the 49ers will attempt, or should attempt, to move him for key pieces and/or picks. The Chiefs, with the top overall pick, do make an interesting dance partner in such a trade.

Alex Smith is a starter at this level, but didn't fit into the pistol package. He would be a great compliment to the Chiefs' new coaching regime. Teams like the Chiefs already know what they can expect from Alex Smith, unlike a young rookie from an air raid offense, think Texas Tech, that normally doesn't translate into a starter at this level, let alone the top pick overall. 

Here are some names that thrived and hit big numbers under this system that were late round picks or went undrafted: Kliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell, Timmy Chang, Colt Brennan, and Bryant Moniz, to name a few good examples.

Geno Smith had his best seasons under this system, so it beacons the question -- why would he be any different than the other lot mentioned above that failed at this level? A team like the Chiefs should be considering this fact when using their top draft pick. Why bet the farm on a kid from a system that hasn't translated well at this level vs. trading for a solid quarterback like Alex Smith?

Now, I am not suggesting the Chiefs will give up the top pick for Alex Smith, but if they can arrange and make a deal while keeping their top two picks, the Chiefs would get off to a great start in the rebuilding process. 

The same cannot be said by selecting Geno Smith and only having a second round pick to further capitalize on. Alex Smith gives you a quarterback that's young and can step right in as a starter.  The Chiefs could then take any of the top defenders with the top pick and get a dynamic receiver with their second round pick.

So, there it is, Geno Smith or Alex Smith? Which direction will they go on draft day?

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20 months ago
I accept your premise that Geno is likely the first QB taken off the board. I just find it hard to believe he is worth the risk of all that Cap crunching guaranteed money for the number 1 pick. Is he really another Luck or RG3? Is he really heads and shoulders above the other QB’s coming out? I think not.
My analysis of the top 8 of first 13 picks (Lions, Titans?, Chargers and Dolphins seem set and well the Jets all that guaranteed money…) will be looking for very seriously QB. So it’s very likely that Geno will be gone in that range or he will drop all the way to the 2nd round unless someone moves up later in the 1st. I have seen one major pundit have Geno going #8 to the Bills and another does not have him in the 1st round. Yikes! If there is not a extremely high quality skill position player in the top 3 or 4, I think having those picks is a cap nightmare. Are you really willing to spend 1st Pick money for a DT? A LT?
I think KC can do both, get Alex Smith and draft a young QB.
If I’m KC:
- Trade out of the 1st Pick for another 1st round and 2nd round.
- Use that 2nd round to trade for Alex Smith; maybe need more?
- Keep your 2nd round to pick a QB; keep in mind there were two young 2nd round QB’s in this year’s playoffs. I think a bunch of the QB’s will come off the board at the top of the 2nd round.

If I’m SF:
- Use your 1st and 2nd round (need more?) to trade up in the 1st round for a DT or 3-4 DE
As a Niner’s fan, I would love to see Alex go to a place where he can succeed. After all he has been through in SF he has been a extremely hard working, great teammate and professional. I believe the 3 best landing spots for Alex are:
- Vikings: AP is not getting any younger. Just think how much better they could be with better QB play?
- KC: Combined with Reid’s West Coast, a running game and a young up and coming defense in a weak AFC west. They could challenge the Broncos in the next few years
- Titans: Good running game and decent defense. Not too sure on this one, have they missed their window?
- The rest of the QB hungry teams should keep their picks and rebuild with the possible exception of the Cardinals. Ignoring the fact that the Niner’s would not likely trade within the division (would they?) give the Cards an offensive line and a decent QB with that defense and they could be a very dangerous team (see Niner’s and Seahawks). They need an O line otherwise Alex breaks the NFL sack record or ends up in the hospital or both.
20 months ago
Quite the contrary Don. I mention the consensus top pick overall, but as I explained in the article, QBs from an Air Raid offense generally are late round draft picks or go undrafted. I also am a firm believer you don't draft a "franchise" QB from the Big 12. You can go down the line and find the proof as to why, including Weeden last season.

I loved your trade ideas and for the Chiefs I do feel Alex Smith would be enough, to trading out of the top pick for a first and additional seconds round pick (likely 1 and 3) they could maneuver into position to get Smith for one of the second rounders (whichever is later in the round) for Alex, and use a later first on Allen and their early 2nd on Terrence Wiliams or DeAndre Hopkins. That would be a complete revamping of the passing game in the first two rounds. They already have a solid RB and run blocking. They manage to keep Hillis at FB the offense is set from a starting standpoint. Rounds 3-7 on defense picks or development lineman.

The Titans and Vikings have a lot invested in their QBs and adding some online help for the Titans and some targets for Ponder will help those teams. More than giving up a pick or picks for Alex Smith. I can't see either ponying up much to attract the Niners attention compared to the Chiefs.

Now the Cardinals are another story and could be a major player for Smith. They are another team needing oline help the most, but all their current QBs are horrible. I could see them giving up their 2nd for Alex Smith, but the Chiefs if need be, have an earlier 2nd if it comes down to which has the better pick wins.

I'm a big Niners and Browns (admitting is right up their with enduring) fan, so I would like to see the Niners get a good shake. 31st and 34th picks on defense, DE and secondary big time! But if they can't get a good shake for Alex, keep him. Eventually a deal worth of pulling the slot will be offered, but if he's getting moved it will be during the draft and the Chiefs hold the most chips to wager. So, Alex or Geno? I side with Alex if I'm the Chiefs, Geno looks like a buster pick at #1. The consensus has him the top pick, so I rate him there, but IMHO he's not worth a 4th round pick. Air Raid QBs don't do well at this level, let alone ever became a "franchise" QB.
20 months ago

With Vick signing with the Eagles that really leaves Smith and possibly Flynn as good trade options for any QB hungry team. I don't know what the Hawks plan for Flynn but Smith clearly has the better body of work. I agree on the Vikings and Titans, and teams that sign $$'s are reluctant to admit ops but man Ponder just did not look good and if it takes another year or two then AP might just be on the down hill side of his great career. Just sayin if they roll the dice......throw in P Harvin and a 2nd round...
20 months ago

Harvin looks like he wants out of Minnesota, so they have receiver concerns. Outside of Harvin all they had was Simpson, and if you check the stats and watch films he couldnt catch the ball. They have a good offense they just need receivers. It's gonna take a good offer for the Niners to part with Alex Smith.
20 months ago
There's no way Geno Smith is taken first. Reed is too savvy for that kind of risk. All you need to do is look back to Pioli and his big miss by betting the farm on a unproven back up in Matt Cassel. In my opinion Reed goes after Alex Smith for this years 3rd and 4th pick and next years 2nd. That leaves the first pick open to pick the best player on the board which I think is Luke Joeckel. Albert has ranked out as the 25th best left tackle in the league and won't be a priority to resign with Bowe becoming a free agent and being our best recieving threat he becomes a must to get under contract. For some reason if they do retain Albert he could slide over to guard and solidify the left side of the line for years to come. Leaving the second pick to go after the middle linebacker position which needs to be shored up.
20 months ago

Take Joeckel with he 1st pick, trade the 34th for Alex Smith, use 3-7 to shore up the team. Smith can be had for a 2nd rounder, Niners will like having 31st and 34h picks, plus a later 2nd rounder. Thus you get a former first round pick for the 34th pick in the second round. Add Joeckel in the first, and then draft the remaining help rounds 3-7, you dont give up two picks if one (second rounder) will get you a franchise QB. Either that or the go after Geno Smith, who isnt a fast QB. Chiefs have no other options, if they dont get either Smith than they are stuck with Cassell. Niners will want a second for a starting level QB last season, 3rd and 4th wont do it, any other team could offer that up. Jags can offer the 33rd pick and get Smith over Barkley, see what I'm saying? A 2nd round in this draft is better than your offer, an a team will offer it, or trade down, Browns potentially, to get a 2nd rounder for that very reason. Alex Smith will be a hot commodity and will be dealt on draft day for the best offer, and already Im hearing the Niners want a 2nd this year, any other picks in this draft is icing on the cake.

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