Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo
CHFF Pick: Kansas City 21, Buffalo 16
Final Score: Kansas City 23, Buffalo 13
CHFF Result: straight up win; ATS win
The Kansas City Chiefs are shaping up as one of the great masters of efficiency in NFL history, and provided a textbook example with their 23-13 win over the Buffalo Bills Sunday.
The Bills outgained the Chiefs 470 yards to 210, but the Chiefs outgained the Bills where it matters most: on the scoreboard.
Kansas City feasted on Buffalo miscues, getting a 100-yard pick-6 score from Sean Smith and an 11-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown by Tamba Hali.
If you’re keeping score at home, that’s nine straight games the Chiefs have held their opponent under 17 points. Not coincidentally, that’s nine straight wins for Kansas City, the masters of efficiency and historic kings of Bendability.
Kansas City entered play No. 1 in Bendability (25.22 Yards Per Point Allowed) and will extend its lead as Buffalo churned out 470 yards and only mustered 13 points.
The Chiefs have now forced opponents to march an incredible 26.5 Yards Per Point Allowed, easily on pace for the most “bendable” defense since we introduced the indicator in 2004.
Put another way, opponents need a total of 185.5 yards of offense to score the equivalent of a touchdown and extra point.
But don’t overlook Alex Smith and the passing game. Smith produced an anemic 3.5 Real Passing Yards Per Attempt, a number that won’t hold up over the course of time.
But the Chiefs, thanks largely to defensive contributions, entered Week 9 No. 9 in Scoreability (13.78 Yards Per Point Scored). They improved that number to 13.3 Yards Per Point Scored with the win over the Bills.
The Chiefs are responsible for one of the more curious statistical storylines in NFL history: they are undefeated more than halfway through the season, but have been outgained in total offense by their opponents 2,942-2,856 (-86).
They were already No. 1 on the Intelligence Index entering Week 9 and will extend their lead in that indicator, too, going into Week 10.
For now, it’s good enough for 9-0, and good enough for the best record in football.