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There are a few key components to CHFF Insider. One is Spreadapedia, our amazing database of every score, point-spread and over-under result since 1978, in a very easy-to-use format.
We also offer premium analysis and features, a long list of winning trends (get a sneak preview of our Week 4 ATS trends here) and the Correlation to Victory and Predictive Rate of Victory of all our stats and many other indicators.
We tell you how often stats predict winners. That's pretty cool.
But the foundation of CHFF Insider is our real and spectacular picks: we pick every game every week both straight up and against the spread, and have been doing so since 2009.
We entered the 2012 season 85 games over .500 ATS since 2009. If that rate continues in 2012, and we've been VERY consistent in the three previous years, we'll end this season an incredible 113 games over .500 ATS picking every single NFL game.
So that's the goal for 2012. And a HUGE reason why you should become a CHFF Insider. We provide winning analysis.
More importantly, we arm you with the information you need to make smart decisions about winners and losers.
We size up every team in every game in 20 different Quality Stats at CHFF Insider, in easy to read statistical tables. Here's what the charts look like, in this case for the Week 4 Giants-Eagles game (this is an image of the chart so you can see what they look like at CHFF Insider; a copy-and-past version appears beow).
Here's our preview of the Week 4 Giants-Eagles game, and the kind of stats and analysis we use to pick every game, every week.
Pay particular attention to The Relativity Index. The Eagles are the slightest of favorites at home. But CHFF Insiders know that teams better in the Relativity Index won 67.4 percent of all NFL games last year. It's a key trend to watch, among many we highlight for every game.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-1)
We all know that turnovers are one of the keys to success in the NFL or at any level of football. We often like to call them the second most important stat in football, after final score.
We don’t track turnovers directly in our Quality Stats – but all those ugly turnovers manifest themselves in so many different ways.
One of the big ways is in our efficiency indicators. Teams that consistently win the turnover battle rank highly in Scoreability and Bendability. Teams that consistently lose the turnover battle rank lowly in Scoreability and Bendability.
The Eagles consistently lose the turnover battle.
As a result, the Eagles are No. 27 in Bendability, our measure of defensive efficiency, and dead last in Scoreability, our measure of offensive efficiency. That’s what happens when your offense coughs up the ball 12 times in three games.
Philadelphia’s Scoreability performance, 26.6 Yards Per Point Scored, is so bad it’s easily on pace to be the least efficient offense since we began tracking the number in 2004. That’s bad.
All those turnovers – nine by Michael Vick alone – also manifest themselves in Offensive Passer Rating (No. 29) and Real QB Rating (No. 30).
The big clash here is Eli Manning and New York’s highly productive passing attack (No. 3 in Real Passing YPA, No. 7 in Real QB Rating, No. 1 with a bullet in Clutch-Osity) against what has been a lights-out pass defense for the Eagles (No. 2 in Defensive QB Rating).
The difference will come when turnover-prone Vick stares down the barrel of New York’s great defensive front: No. 6 on the Defensive Hog Index and No. 3 at pressuring the passer.
The Giants have forced a Negative Pass Play on 1 in 8 dropbacks this season (12.5%). That unit will likely make the one play that tips the balance of power in favor of the Giants.
Pick: N.Y. Giants 24, Philadelphia 21