The New York Jets are fantasy quicksand. The footing looks safe enough, until you take that first step and realize you are quickly sinking.
So the question is do you dare hot shot. What do you do? Will you dare to go for fresh meat?
There is second round pick, West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith. Are you going to drop a fantasy pick on him?
Let's recap shall we?
Geno Smith entered his last season at West Virginia as a Heisman hopeful. He finished the year not in the top ten of Heisman voters.
Smith started out the year on fire. He ended the year a bit cool.
Smith, against all conventional wisdom, believed he would be a first round pick in the NFL Draft. He wasn't. So he fired his agent.
That is peripheral information.
Smith's last year at West Virginia he threw for 4,205 yards, with 42 touchdowns and six interceptions. While these are really good stats, Smith worked mainly out of a shotgun system.
He is now a J-E-T. Not only does he have to dodge the chaos that surrounds the Jets at every turn, Smith also has to learn a new system. The Jets have a new offensive coordinator, Marty Mornhinweg. Mornhinweg is entrenched in the West Coast offense, Smith is not.
Reports out of rookie minicamp and OTAs suggest that Smith has struggled with the new offense. This does not bode well for him having a leg up on the quarterback competition.
According to ESPN New York, "the Jets are open to using Smith in a specialized role -- read option plays, if he loses the quarterback competition to incumbent Mark Sanchez." And while this seems like good news for a fantasy pick, hold please.
In college Smith attempted 11 designed rushing plays. He averaged 2.6 yards per rush. Smith is no Colin Kaepernick. He is fast but not speedy. He will not beat out Robert Griffin III in a foot race, and RG III is limping on a bad knee.
The problem, Smith is unlikely to beat out Sanchez for the starting position. That is bad news.
Smith may be inserted in specific packages for the offense, sounds a little like the rhetoric of last year with a different quarterback, who had visions of the Wildcat.
There is little upside to Smith. If you are in a dynasty league he is still a gamble. There are better ways to sabotage your fantasy team if you are so inclined.
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