Fantasy Football: Avoid The Number One Playoff Pitfall
Sometimes fantasy analysts do far more harm than good.
Convincing arguments are made on television and print for you to bench a struggling star for this week's "waiver wire gem."
Let's look at a couple examples:
Take week 10 of this year. Andre Johnson was coming off a four catch, 35 yard performance during a sloppy game in Chicago.
Week 10 was a bye for the Packers, and James Jones had a four catch, 61 yard and one touchdown game in week 9. Greg Jennings was going to miss week 11, that meant another start for Jones and an extra week to practice with the baaaddddd maaannnn Aaron Rodgers.
CBS Sportsline let their readers know that James Jones is a week 11 sleeper, and Andre Johnson was on bust alert.
Obviously Johnson owners had been pretty frustrated up to that point in the season, and if they had James Jones they were already flirting with benching Johnson for Jones. CBS just pushed owners of the edge.
Here's how week 11 wound up for both:
Jones - 2 catches, 33 yards. Good for three standard points or five ppr.
Johnson - 9 catches, 188 yards. Good for 18 standard points or 27 ppr.
Going back to week 3, Jamal Charles came off a six carry three yard performance the previous week against a bad Buffalo defense.
Meanwhile Ryan Mathews was going to have his first start of the 2012 season in week 3. Depending on whom you asked, Jamal Charles was done for and Ryan Mathews was about to finally bloom.
The Bleacher Report lavished praise on the "elite" San Diego back - giving him a start nod in his grand re-opening for 2012.
Meanwhile Yahoo! Sports began to question Jamal Charles, even in a match-up against the Saints' so called defense.
Well, production for each back in week 4 follows:
Mathews - 10 carries, 44 yards.
Charles - 33 carries, 233 yards, 1 touchdown.
If you're like me, you're thinking what's your point? Everyone makes bonehead calls and hindsight is 20/20.
I agree. The point I'm trying to make can be simply put: Start your studs in the playoffs - period.
The single worst thing any fantasy owner can do is plug in a week 12 waiver wire pickup over a star that may have recently struggled or been hurt.
When DeMarco Murray returns for the Cowboys, you'll hear and read about a supposedly reduced workload. Don't believe it, start him. The Cowboys ran all over Baltimore earlier this year and dominated the game by most accords.
I think everyone in Dallas knows they have a much better chance to win the game if Romo doesn't throw the ball 60 times. The Cowboys have zero run game without Murray and have been extremely ginger in their treatment of his injury. When he comes back - he's ready to run.
The same goes for Greg Jennings. Every single week he goes from "O" to "D" and messes with lineup acquisitions, it's frustrating. When the Old Spice pitchman finally does grace the field with his presence, you'll read about limited snaps and blah blah.
What was written about Murray applies to Jennings. Whenever he does come back - he'll be ready to play. The Packers have taken all sorts of precautions and encountered surprises while dealing with Jennings' injury. Play him when he comes back as a flex no questions asked.
A good captain sinks with his ship. Would you rather your ship be Greg Jennings or Danario Alexander? Jalen Parmele or DeMarco Murray? Don't buy the hype when it counts most.