Oh, quarterbacks, how I love thee. Tall, commanding, and strong armed. Everything I want to be. Of course famous and rich are pretty cool too, right? I am sure in some other life this is exactly who I am. But in this life I am the 5' 9" scrawny guy writing this fantasy quarterback sleeper and bust column and thankful for every bit of it. As I turn my frown upside down being thankful to write this and have the forum to post it in, let's get to it.
Quarterback is probably the most difficult position to write a sleeper or bust column about, There just aren't that many. In normal formats you only play one. Which is one of the reasons I love playing in leagues that play two quarterbacks. Part of it is my man crush for quarterbacks and part of it is the added element to a draft and league.
Sleepers and busts are determined by draft position.
Ben Rothlisberger heads the list of sleepers because of his draft position. Big Ben islasting all the way past the eighth or even ninth round.
Before his injury last year Big Ben was on pace for over 4,400 yards, 32 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. The loss of Mike Wallace may hurt his value some, but he will certainly be worth more than his average draft position, (ADP), of 106.
Despite missing three full games, and a part of another, he scored more points than 10 other quarterbacks that missed zero or one game.
Alex Smith is pissed and has Andy Reid as his coach. He also has some dynamic play-makers in Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, and Dexter McCluster. Undrafted, Smith will be a hot pick-up after he torches Jacksonville in Week 1.
Tony Romo makes the list because he is currently about the 12th quarterback coming off the board. Everyone is so down on Romo, but Romo finished 6th last year among quarterbacks. He will finish in the same vicinity again in 2013. Romo has never finished with a quarterback rating under 90.5. You may not like him in real life, but for fantasy he is a bargain and consistent.
Matthew Stafford will be a top five quarterback in 2013. Last years bust is this years sleeper. He has the best wide receiver in the game and the addition of Reggie Bush can only help. Stafford set an NFL record for attempts in 2012 but scored more than 100 fewer fantasy points than in 2011.
Expect Stafford to land somewhere in between his 2011 and 2012 numbers and that places him inside the top five fantasy scoring quarterbacks in 2013. A bargain as the 9th quarterback off the board around the 60th pick.
Colin Kaepernick is all the rage in 2013 fantasy drafts. Sure he scored double digit points in every game he started last year, but only once did he eclipse 20 points. His receiving corp is weak, his schedule brutal, and his ADP of 42 is ridiculously high for what you get. Avoid Keap this early in a draft.
Michael Vick is now part of an offense that will likely emphasize the read option. Pretty exciting for an athletic quarterback like Vick, except that he has missed at least three games every year since his return without the additional pounding of being that read option quarterback. Vick will be done by Week 6, and that is a stretch, expect more like three weeks out of Vick.
Robert Griffin III burst on the scene in 2013 with four straight games of 21 points or better. Then he scored three points followed by 34 in week five. From that point forward RGIII managed to rise above 22 points just twice. He is an injury risk. His receiving corp is putrid and full of more injury risks. Maybe putrid was a little strong but there are certainly injury risks there. He is on a team that loves to run the ball. An ADP of around 48 is too high.
Russell Wilson could be fantastic, could be mediocre, or could be bad. Wilson threw for just 3,118 yards but threw and ran for 31 touchdowns.
He isn't going to throw for many more yards on this run heavy team. Can he manage 31 touchdowns again? Percy Harvin was expected to help Wilson out but he out for the year.
That leaves Wilson with Sidney Rice who may not be ready for Week 1, Golden Tate, Doug Bladwin, and a bunch of guys you have probably never heard of. Wilson scored single digit fantasy points five different weeks in 2012.
Can the receivers stay healthy? Can Wilson manage 31 or more touchdowns again? Wilson is a gamble that could pay off big, be mediocre, or completely flop.