The dumb Houston Texans were crushed 34-3 by the smart San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, providing yet another blowout victory for the Cold, Hard Football Facts Intelligence Index.
The Intelligence Index tracks how well each NFL team plays in situational football. It separates the smart teams that do all the little things right from the dumb teams that do all the little things wrong.
Colonel Comey releases the Intelligence Index each Wednesday at CHFF Insider and outlines each week's biggest “Mental Mismatches.”
They continue to deliver easy winners at an astounding rate: these eight Mental Mismatches are a perfect 8-0 straight up and a perfect 8-0 against the spread.
The smart teams in these Mental Mismatches have not only won and covered the spread, they’ve consistently produced the biggest blowouts of the season week after week.
Week 5 was no exception. Colonel Comey identified just one Mental Mismatch this week, but it produced yet again the biggest blowout on the slate as the smart 49ers embarrassed the dumb Texans by 31 points.
Here are the results of our eight Mental Mismatches so far in 2013:
- Week 2 – Cincinnati 20, Pittsburgh 10
- Week 3 – Carolina 38, N.Y. Giants, 0
- Week 3 – Seattle 45, Jacksonville, 17
- Week 3 – Dallas 31, St. Louis, 7
- Week 4 – Kansas City 31, N.Y. Giants, 7
- Week 4 – Indianapolis 37, Jacksonville 3
- Week 4 – Seattle 23, Houston, 20
- Week 5 – San Francisco 34, Houston 3
- Total: Smart Team 259, Dumb Team 67
- Average: Smart Team 32.4, Dumb Team 8.4
It's not even close, folks: the smart teams have won by an average of 24 PPG, an astonishing margin of victory by NFL standards.
And, boy, did Houston flunk out badly in San Francisco. The Texans:
- lost the turnover battle 4-0
- converted just 6 of 16 third downs
- failed to score on their one red zone visit
- committed more penalties (7 for 52 vs. 3 for 17)
- and, of course, class clown quarterback Matt Schaub dished yet another pick-six to hand the 49ers an early 7-0 lead
But Houston really looked no different than most of the dunces on our list. The dumb teams have consistently been overwhelmed mentally and physically by the smartest teams in football.
The Intelligence Index uses our efficiency indicators, Scoreability and Bendability, to determine which teams consistently play the best in situational football.
Smart teams commit fewer penalties and turnovers; they are generally better on special teams and in the red zone; they score points more efficiently and make opponents work harder for the same results.
The Intelligence Index packages all this information in a single, easy-to-understand number that separates winners from losers.
We believe the Intelligence Index works, especially against the spread, for one very simple reason: sports fans overvalue the physical qualities of each team and undervalue their mental capabilities.
What does the Intelligence Index tell us about Week 6? Colonel Comey offers the updated Intelligence Index, and a new slate of mental mismatches, each week at CHFF Insider.