I am doing my football previews based on what people really care about when it comes to football, enhancing their bank account!! Football is easily the most wagered upon sport of all. It is a multi-billion dollar industry on and off shore. So when I write these previews, I am going to incorporate NFL reality with Vegas twist. That is my "Odd" way of previewing these teams.
Here is the Vegas view of the Atlanta Falcons according to Sportsbook.com:
Odds to win Super Bowl : 17 to 1 or +1700
Odds to win NFC: 8.5 to 1 or +850
Odds to Win NFC South : 1.7 to 1 or + 170
Over/Under 10 wins : Over 10 wins = +110 , Under 10 wins = -140
The 17-1 odds to win the Super Bowl puts Atlanta among the top tier of NFL teams to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. These odds are obviously justified because of the NFC Championship appearance Atlanta had last season where they lost to the San Francisco 49ers 28-24 in the Georgia Dome.
Though the Falcons built the early 17-0 lead, the ATL could not maintain their lead. The Falcons even were up 24-14 at the half, but the Niners imposed their will on the gane and shut down the Falcons en route to making a Super Bowl appearance.
The Falcons could actually cash in on that 17-1 to win the Super Bowl because they are going to boast one of the most potent offensive attacks in the NFL.
The addition of Steven Jackson from the St. Louis Rams will hopefully give the Falcons the missing dynamic they need in order to take home the Lombardi trophy. Last years' running game left a lot to be desired for the Falcons. The Falcons as a team rushed for 3.7 yards per carry and 87.3 yards per game. Running Back, Michael Turner, combined rushing and receiving did not total 1,000 yards only collecting 928 combined.
If Steven Jackson proves to be the missing piece to the offensive puzzle, winning it all is not out of the question.
What will hold them back from winning it all is the defense. ATL's defense against the passing game in particular was not too hot. The 242.4 yards per game they gave up in 2012 ranked them in the bottom third of the league. This flaw was made evident many times during the season. The Niners even found time to exploit it in the NFC championship with TE Vernon Davis punishing the ATL linebackers and safeties in the passing game.
Davis caught 5 balls for 106 yards and a touchdown in that game. If the Falcons have not shored up that issue defensively there will be a lot of aerial attacks in the league that will stop the Falcons short of their Championship goal.
A lot of those aerial attacks that can stop them from reaching their goal are in the NFC where the Falcons odds are 8.5-1 to win the conference. Green Bay, Seattle, and San Francisco are all teams that "The Wise Guys" have given better odds on and that they feel can send the Falcons home come playoff time.
I would think that "The Wise Guys" feel that Seattle and San Francisco are more capable of winning the NFC because they boast 2 of the stoutest defenses in the NFL.
But Green Bay is seen as a more powerful foe in Vegas's eye at 6-1 or +600 because they have the type of potent passing game that will expose the Falcons.
The Falcons do have two new young corners that they are trying to work into the fold in first round pick CB Desmond Trufant out of Washinhgton and second round pick CB Robert Alford out of SE Louisiana. But waiting on these talented corners to be groomed when you are trying to win now is going to be a slight problem for the Falcons.
Trufant and Alford are going to need to mature quickly in order for the Falcons to overcome the odds against them out West and in the Midwest to take the conference.
Winning the Division and making the playoffs should not be that difficult a task, however, to put them in the position to play for NFC championship and Super Bowl stakes.
ATL is the odds on favorite to win the NFC South at 1.7 to 1 or +170. This is because when it is all said and done they do have the most balanced team in their division offensively and defensively on top of the fact that they ran away with the division last season.
The only team in the South "The Wise Guys" see giving any competition to the ATL are the New Orleans Saints apparently at 2-1 or + 200. That makes sense with New Orleans getting Head Coach Sean Payton back from suspension and bringing on defensive coordinator Rob Ryan from Dallas.
Carolina at 3.5 to 1 or +350 and Tampa Bay at 5 to 1 or +500 round out the South divisional probabilities, but when it is all said and done this division should be a 2 team race between N.O. and ATL.
It should take at least 10 wins for the Falcons to win their Division. The Falcons won 13 games last season. So the over 10 wins paying 1.1 to 1 or +110 is looking like a real solid bet.
The ATL does have games against New England, San Francisco, Green Bay, Washington and Seattle on their schedule to go along with the usual divisional gauntlet. But they are very capable of squeezing double digit wins out of their schedule. However if you think that 11 wins is not in their future, -$140 to win $100 is not a bad proposition.
The Falcons have plans on cashing in on the talent that they have cultivated and winning it all in 2013. How will you try to cash in on their fortune and misfortune? It's up to you!