State of the Nation

We would like to send you the the best NFL stories, stats, videos and podcasts from the only nation that is all football all the time

By Matt Buffington

The football season is quickly approaching, which means fantasy football players are waking up from hibernation (also known as “life”) to figure out who to draft in 2012. While there are never any easy answers and nobody can predict exactly how the season will go down, there are certain signs that can give us a higher probability of winning.
 
Since training camp is upon us, it is a good time to see what players are currently ranked too high or too low. All of the players on this list are going at least a round too early or a round too late, if not two or three rounds. These projections may certainly change after training camp and the preseason, but it’s worth keeping an eye on these players. All of the following projections are based on a 10-team standard scoring league.
 
Jeremy Maclin - He is currently ranked as a late-5^th round pick, and based on his stats from last year, it seems just about right. However, it is likely he will be Michael Vick’s go-to receiver, especially in red zone situations. The Eagles gave Desean Jackson a big contract, but it is unlikely he will live up to the no. 1 receiver that the Eagles seem to think he is. Jackson has a lot to prove before he deserves the big throws, and we’ve already seen Vick look to Maclin early and often.
 
Bottom line: Maclin gets more than 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, making him a worthy 4^th round pick.
 
LeGarrette Blount - He was ranked really high last year (late 4^th round) and often went in the early 3^rd round, but he did not perform like a 3^rd round pick. With the Bucs spending a 1^st round pick on Doug Martin, we’ve seen Blount’s stock drop a lot. Too much, actually. He’s currently slated to be drafted in the 12^th round, which is at least four rounds too late. He’s been working on the weakest parts of his game throughout the offseason (receiving, ball protection and pass protection), and he has a lot to prove. This is what makes him so dangerous. We know he can make some difficult and flashy runs, but he needs to be a complete back if he wants to stay on the field. Someone who is motivated, has talent, and is willing to make improvements should never be underestimated. It also helps that the Bucs new coach likes his team to run the football. All the pieces are in place for Blount to silence the critics this year, making him a late-round steal.
 
Bottom Line: Blount hits 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns, making him worth taking at least four rounds earlier than he is currently going.
 
Jimmy Graham - He posted a monster season in his second year in the league, catching 11 touchdowns and gaining more than 1,300 yards. These numbers are better than most wide receivers, but he has yet to show he can do this year after year. Sometimes it’s good to take a risk, but not with your first two picks in a draft. He is currently being drafted as a late 2^nd/early 3^rd round pick, but this is too high for someone coming off of one spectacular season. I don’t doubt his ability or athleticism, but I do doubt a repeated output of wide receiver-caliber stats. Even when Antonio Gates was in his prime and putting up absurd numbers, he was still a 4^th round selection, never earlier. Graham has high potential with Drew Brees throwing him the ball, but Brees spreads the wealth around. Brees also had a record year last year. It is unlikely Brees will have a repeat season (although 4,500 yards is definitely not out of the question), lowering expectations for Graham.
 
Bottom Line: Graham gets 900 yards and 8 touchdowns, making him a solid 4^th or 5^th round pick.
 
Brandon Lloyd - Tom Brady has yet another worthy target to throw to, but pickings are starting to get slim in New England. Lloyd is currently a 6^th round pick, but even that may be too high. Even on a team that throws the football a lot, being the fourth-best option is not going to give you huge numbers. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for a whopping 24 touchdowns last year. That only left 15 touchdowns for anyone else who caught a pass from Brady, with Wes Welker getting 9 of those touchdowns. Lloyd will gain more yards and catch more touchdowns than Chad Ochocinco did last year, but beating 276 yards and 1 touchdown is not a tall order.
 
Bottom Line: Lloyd will be lucky to get 500 yards and 3 touchdowns, making plenty of other no. 2 wide receivers a better option in the 6^th round. Lloyd is worth picking up no earlier than the 7^th round, with the 8^th or 9^th round representing the numbers he will likely put up.
 
Marshawn Lynch - Lynch is currently going in the 2^nd round because of his monster 2011 season. Lynch is a beast, and some of those amazing runs he had last year were a result of pure determination. He also has very little competition for carries, making him a very tempting selection. However, being able to repeat last year’s production on a team showing few improvements will be difficult to say the least. The quarterback competition in Seattle is far from over, and none of the candidates are astounding. Lynch will put up numbers on sheer volume alone, but his yards-per-carry may take a hit and fall below 4. Teams know that he needs to be stopped, and unless the quarterback can make some throws to make defenses back off, it’ll be a disappointing year for Lynch owners.
 
Bottom Line: Lynch runs for 900 yards and 9 touchdowns and does not live up to a 2^nd round pick. He’s a solid 4^th round option than can fill the no. 2 running back slot on your team. Let someone else take the gamble of drafting him in the 2^nd round at this point.
 
Mikel Leshoure – With Javid Best on the PUP list, Leshoure may have a crack at becoming the no. 1 running back for the Lions. Best’s injury history is concerning to say the least, especially with the number of concussions he has sustained in his short career. Leshoure will miss the first two games of the season, and he has yet to play in an NFL game. However, Kevin Smith is not the answer to the Lions running game and if Best isn’t able to play, Leshoure is on the verge of becoming a 3-down back. He may be a risky play at first, but he is worth a late-round speculation pick. You’re generally looking for unproven guys with high potential with your 12^th or 13^th pick, and what better way to spend it than on a 22-year-old running back who plays for a team that relies on its offense. This is a player with high upside, so look here if you need a sleeper at the end of the draft.
 
Bottom Line: If Leshoure ends up starting eight games (plus some backup duty before he’s handed the starting job), he could end up with 800 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns (which is certainly start-worth if the majority comes from half a season of playing). If he’s relegated to a backup role for the entire season, 400 total yards and 3 touchdowns may be more realistic.
 
Jermaine Gresham - With everyone talking about Graham and Gronkowski, some of the other talented tight ends are flying under the radar. Gresham is entering his third year, but he’s only 24 years old and we’ve yet to see him truly flourish. He has the athletic ability and a decent quarterback throwing to him. A.J. Green is the clear no. 1 target on the Bengals, but Gresham may very well end up as the no. 2 guy. His numbers improved during his sophomore year in the NFL, and it’s likely the trend will continue this year. At this point he’s not even being drafted in most 10-team mock drafts, so if you miss out on one of the elites, you can still end up with a guy who may see 90+ targets, especially in the red zone. His size and athletic ability make him a matchup problem for defenses and as Andy Dalton gets better, Gresham will definitely be one of the beneficiaries.
 
Bottom Line: Gresham surpasses 800 yards and hauls in 8 touchdowns, making him a serviceable tight end for anyone who doesn’t want to reach for the elites. Easily a draftable player, he’s worth picking up as early as the 9^th or 10^th rounds. 

---